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South Carolina playoff odds
South Carolina makes the College Football Playoff in 8.3% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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South Carolina playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
South Carolina is 6-3 (4-3 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 8.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 3.8%), wins the SEC in 0.1% and wins the national title in 0.15%, with 7.6 projected wins.
That is the 24th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 22.
Who South Carolina fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move South Carolina's playoff odds the most.
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.65%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 1.97%
- Mississippi State over Auburn, worth 1.44%
- Missouri over Georgia, worth 1.34%
- Alabama over Vanderbilt, worth 1.24%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 1.21%
What South Carolina needs
South Carolina has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 62.2%, at 8-4 in 1.8%. The game that decides the most is against Georgia in week 12: 33.1% with a win, 0.8% with a loss.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Arkansas | 73.8% | 11.2% | 0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Georgia | 23.3% | 33.1% | 0.8% |
| Week 13 | at Clemson | 59.9% | 13.7% | 0.2% |
South Carolina's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 12.2% | 62.2% |
| 8-4 | 42.5% | 1.8% |
| 7-5 | 35.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 9.9% | <0.1% |
South Carolina's results
week 1, beat Kent State 57-0; week 2, beat Towson 45-9; week 3, lost to Mississippi State 34-41; week 4, lost to Alabama 18-49; week 5, lost to Kentucky 34-35; week 6, beat Florida 38-19; week 8, beat Tennessee 27-24; week 9, beat Oklahoma 42-25; week 10, beat Texas A&M 17-9.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will South Carolina make the College Football Playoff?
- South Carolina is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 8.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.6 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 0.1% and the national title in 0.15%.
- What does South Carolina need to make the playoff?
- South Carolina has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 62.2%, at 8-4 in 1.8%. The game that decides the most is against Georgia in week 12: 33.1% with a win, 0.8% with a loss.
- Who should South Carolina fans root for in week 11?
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.65% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is South Carolina's toughest game left?
- Hosting Georgia in week 12, with a 23.3% chance to win.
- How are South Carolina's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in South Carolina's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.