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Kent State playoff odds
Kent State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Kent State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Kent State is 3-6 (2-3 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.8 projected wins.
That is the 90th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Kent State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Kent State's playoff odds.
What Kent State needs
Even at 6-6, Kent State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.2% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Bowling Green | 28.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Miami (OH) | 24.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Eastern Michigan | 30.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Kent State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 3.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 17.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 39.5% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 40.1% | <0.1% |
Kent State's results
week 1, lost to South Carolina 0-57; week 2, beat Wofford 36-15; week 3, lost to Ohio State 3-59; week 4, beat Ball State 26-13; week 5, lost to Ohio 10-13; week 6, lost to Western Michigan 7-38; week 7, lost to South Florida 2-29; week 8, beat Akron 35-20; week 9, lost to Sacramento State 10-31.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Kent State make the College Football Playoff?
- Kent State is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.8 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Kent State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Kent State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.2% of seasons.
- Who should Kent State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Kent State's playoff odds.
- What is Kent State's toughest game left?
- Hosting Miami (OH) in week 12, with a 24.5% chance to win.
- How are Kent State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Kent State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.