simulating…
Massachusetts playoff odds
Massachusetts makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Massachusetts playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Massachusetts is 5-4 (2-3 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.4 projected wins.
That is the 94th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Massachusetts fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Massachusetts's playoff odds.
What Massachusetts needs
Even at 8-4, Massachusetts makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 87.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Toledo | 19.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Akron | 74.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Bowling Green | 49.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Massachusetts's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 8.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 38.1% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 12.2% | <0.1% |
Massachusetts's results
week 1, beat Rutgers 37-21; week 2, beat Sacred Heart 37-10; week 3, beat Stonehill 36-14; week 4, beat Sacramento State 35-6; week 5, lost to Eastern Michigan 14-38; week 6, lost to Miami (OH) 19-20; week 7, lost to Buffalo 18-25; week 8, lost to UConn 16-35; week 10, beat Ball State 31-30.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Massachusetts make the College Football Playoff?
- Massachusetts is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.4 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Massachusetts need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Massachusetts makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 87.8% of seasons.
- Who should Massachusetts fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Massachusetts's playoff odds.
- What is Massachusetts's toughest game left?
- At Toledo in week 11, with a 19.3% chance to win.
- How are Massachusetts's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Massachusetts's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.