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Bowling Green playoff odds
Bowling Green makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Bowling Green playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Bowling Green is 2-7 (2-3 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.4 projected wins.
That is the 68th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Bowling Green fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Bowling Green's playoff odds.
What Bowling Green needs
Even at 5-7, Bowling Green makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Kent State | 71.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Toledo | 15.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Massachusetts | 50.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Bowling Green's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | 6.9% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 37.3% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 41.8% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 13.9% | <0.1% |
Bowling Green's results
week 1, lost to Tarleton State 13-20; week 2, lost to Nebraska 7-56; week 3, lost to Iowa State 7-55; week 4, lost to South Florida 6-14; week 5, beat Miami (OH) 24-20; week 6, beat Sacramento State 38-10; week 7, lost to Ball State 31-32; week 8, lost to Buffalo 24-31; week 9, lost to Western Michigan 10-23.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Bowling Green make the College Football Playoff?
- Bowling Green is 2-7 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.4 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Bowling Green need to make the playoff?
- Even at 5-7, Bowling Green makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Bowling Green fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Bowling Green's playoff odds.
- What is Bowling Green's toughest game left?
- At Toledo in week 12, with a 15.3% chance to win.
- How are Bowling Green's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Bowling Green's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.