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Buffalo playoff odds
Buffalo makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Buffalo playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Buffalo is 6-3 (4-1 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in 9.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.8 projected wins.
That is the 69th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Buffalo fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Buffalo's playoff odds.
What Buffalo needs
Even at 9-3, Buffalo makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 26.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Buffalo at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Ball State | 60.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Central Michigan | 55.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Akron | 67.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Buffalo's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 25.3% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 40.1% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 27.0% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 7.6% | <0.1% |
Buffalo's results
week 1, beat UAlbany 21-17; week 2, lost to Florida International 20-33; week 3, lost to Penn State 13-55; week 4, beat Robert Morris 31-28; week 5, lost to Western Michigan 17-20; week 6, beat Toledo 23-8; week 7, beat Massachusetts 25-18; week 8, beat Bowling Green 31-24; week 10, beat Miami (OH) 34-31.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Buffalo make the College Football Playoff?
- Buffalo is 6-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.8 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in 9.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Buffalo need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Buffalo makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 26.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Buffalo at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Buffalo fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Buffalo's playoff odds.
- What is Buffalo's toughest game left?
- Hosting Central Michigan in week 12, with a 55.2% chance to win.
- How are Buffalo's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Buffalo's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.