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Penn State playoff odds
Penn State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Penn State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Penn State is 5-4 (2-4 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.5 projected wins.
That is the 108th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Penn State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Penn State's playoff odds.
What Penn State needs
Even at 8-4, Penn State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Minnesota | 79.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Rutgers | 89.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Maryland | 79.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Penn State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 58.2% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 32.9% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 8.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 0.8% | <0.1% |
Penn State's results
week 1, beat Marshall 45-0; week 2, beat Temple 27-9; week 3, beat Buffalo 55-13; week 4, lost to Wisconsin 20-24; week 5, lost to Northwestern 13-34; week 6, lost to USC 23-31; week 7, lost to Michigan 18-21; week 9, beat Purdue 31-17; week 10, beat Washington 28-25.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff?
- Penn State is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.5 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Penn State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Penn State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Penn State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Penn State's playoff odds.
- What is Penn State's toughest game left?
- At Maryland in week 13, with a 79.0% chance to win.
- How are Penn State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Penn State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.