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Wisconsin playoff odds
Wisconsin makes the College Football Playoff in 1.7% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Wisconsin playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Wisconsin is 6-3 (4-2 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 1.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 1.1%), wins the Big Ten in 1.6% and wins the national title in 0.01%, with 8.1 projected wins.
That is the 31st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Wisconsin fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Wisconsin's playoff odds the most.
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 2.22%
- USC over Indiana, worth 2.17%
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 0.50%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 0.45%
- Michigan State over Washington, worth 0.27%
- Penn State over Minnesota, worth 0.24%
What Wisconsin needs
Wisconsin needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 4.9%. The game that decides the most is at Purdue in week 12: 2.7% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 4.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Wisconsin at 100.0% and losing it at 0.3%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Maryland | 71.9% | 2.4% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Purdue | 61.7% | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Minnesota | 72.5% | 2.3% | <0.1% |
Wisconsin's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 34.8% | 4.9% |
| 8-4 | 40.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 20.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 4.3% | <0.1% |
Wisconsin's results
week 1, lost to Notre Dame 13-41; week 2, beat Western Illinois 36-9; week 3, beat Eastern Michigan 54-10; week 4, beat Penn State 24-20; week 5, beat Michigan State 31-3; week 7, lost to UCLA 7-17; week 8, beat USC 24-7; week 9, lost to Iowa 0-30; week 10, beat Rutgers 31-10.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Wisconsin make the College Football Playoff?
- Wisconsin is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 1.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.1 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 1.6% and the national title in 0.01%.
- What does Wisconsin need to make the playoff?
- Wisconsin needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 4.9%. The game that decides the most is at Purdue in week 12: 2.7% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 4.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Wisconsin at 100.0% and losing it at 0.3%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Wisconsin fans root for in week 11?
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 2.22% in playoff odds, then USC over Indiana.
- What is Wisconsin's toughest game left?
- At Purdue in week 12, with a 61.7% chance to win.
- How are Wisconsin's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Wisconsin's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.