The American Athletic title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. North Texas51.7%
2. Memphis24.9%
3. UTSA14.5%
4. Army6.8%
5. Everyone else2.1%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins American Athletic	Playoff
North Texas	5-0	7-2	89.4%	51.7%	1.1%
Memphis	4-1	7-2	48.8%	24.9%	0.1%
UTSA	4-1	7-2	35.4%	14.5%	0.3%
Army	4-2	5-4	19.5%	6.8%	<0.1%
East Carolina	3-2	5-4	3.6%	1.2%	<0.1%
Florida Atlantic	3-2	6-3	1.6%	0.4%	<0.1%
Tulsa	2-3	5-4	0.5%	0.2%	<0.1%
UAB	3-2	5-4	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%
South Florida	2-3	6-3	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%
Tulane	2-3	4-5	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Navy	2-4	3-6	<0.1%	0.0%	<0.1%
Charlotte	1-4	1-8	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
RiceOut	0-5	1-8	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Temple	1-4	2-7	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• North TexasClinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Memphis, UTSA, Army, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic.

Out of the race: Rice.

Likeliest title games

1. 40.9% of seasonsNorth TexasUNT51%49%MemphisMEM
2. 27.0% of seasonsNorth TexasUNT59%41%UTSAUTSA
3. 15.6% of seasonsNorth TexasUNT68%32%ArmyARMY
4. 5.9% of seasonsMemphisMEM61%39%UTSAUTSA
5. 3.4% of seasonsNorth TexasUNT68%32%East CarolinaECU
6. 2.3% of seasonsArmyARMY52%48%UTSAUTSA

The games that decide the race

1. 1North TexasatUTSAWeek 11Sat 9:00 PM ET, ESPNU0.24Most at stakeUTSA49.6North Texas22.8Memphis18.5
2. 2MemphisatNavyWeek 12Sat 12:00 PM ET0.22Most at stakeMemphis48.2Army15.7UTSA12.9
3. 3MemphisatSouth FloridaWeek 11Thu 8:00 PM ET, ESPN0.21Most at stakeMemphis44.5Army19.0UTSA13.5
4. 4TulsaatUTSAWeek 13Fri, time TBA0.20Most at stakeUTSA39.5Memphis23.2Army8.5
5. 5UTSAatUABWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.17Most at stakeUTSA39.6Memphis22.7Army6.9
6. 6East CarolinaatArmyWeek 12Sat 12:00 PM ET, CBSSN0.15Most at stakeArmy30.8Memphis10.6East Carolina8.8
7. 7NavyvsArmyWeek 15Sat 3:00 PM ET, CBS0.13Most at stakeArmy27.1UTSA11.3Memphis7.4
8. 8North TexasatTulaneWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.11Most at stakeNorth Texas29.0Memphis12.1UTSA9.6

How the American Athletic breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at the higher seed's stadium.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. The conference's ranking metric

Questions

Who is favored to win the American Athletic in 2026?

North Texas wins the American Athletic in 51.7% of simulated seasons, ahead of Memphis (24.9%) and UTSA (14.5%).

Who will play in the American Athletic championship game?

The likeliest pairing is North Texas against Memphis, in 40.9% of seasons. North Texas reaches the game in 89.4% and Memphis in 48.8%.

How many American Athletic teams will make the College Football Playoff?

0.0 on average across the simulated seasons. North Texas makes it in 1.1%, UTSA makes it in 0.3%, Memphis makes it in 0.1%.

Other conferences: ACC Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

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