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Florida Atlantic playoff odds
Florida Atlantic makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Florida Atlantic playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Florida Atlantic is 6-3 (3-2 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in 0.4% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.1 projected wins.
That is the 56th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Florida Atlantic fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Florida Atlantic's playoff odds the most.
- Sacramento State over Central Michigan, worth <0.01%
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01%
What Florida Atlantic needs
Even at 9-3, Florida Atlantic makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Tulsa in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 1.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Florida Atlantic at 0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Tulsa | 26.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs South Florida | 45.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at East Carolina | 34.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Florida Atlantic's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 5.8% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 24.1% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 41.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 28.8% | <0.1% |
Florida Atlantic's results
week 1, lost to Florida 21-66; week 2, beat Navy 38-30; week 3, beat Florida International 16-10; week 4, beat UL Monroe 45-17; week 5, beat Texas Southern 66-10; week 7, lost to Army 24-56; week 8, beat Rice 51-49; week 9, lost to North Texas 41-48; week 10, beat UTSA 60-29.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Florida Atlantic make the College Football Playoff?
- Florida Atlantic is 6-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.1 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 0.4% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Florida Atlantic need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Florida Atlantic makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Tulsa in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 1.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Florida Atlantic at 0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Florida Atlantic fans root for in week 11?
- Sacramento State over Central Michigan, worth <0.01% in playoff odds, then Oregon State over Boise State.
- What is Florida Atlantic's toughest game left?
- At Tulsa in week 11, with a 26.7% chance to win.
- How are Florida Atlantic's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Florida Atlantic's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.