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East Carolina playoff odds
East Carolina makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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East Carolina playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
East Carolina is 5-4 (3-2 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in 1.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.9 projected wins.
That is the 78th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who East Carolina fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on East Carolina's playoff odds.
What East Carolina needs
Even at 8-4, East Carolina makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 3.6% of seasons. Winning it puts East Carolina at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 95.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Charlotte | 81.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Army | 40.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Florida Atlantic | 65.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
East Carolina's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 24.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 44.7% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 25.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 5.0% | <0.1% |
East Carolina's results
week 1, lost to Alabama 10-48; week 2, lost to App State 24-27; week 3, beat Old Dominion 20-17; week 4, beat North Carolina Central 42-9; week 6, beat Rice 28-12; week 7, lost to UAB 17-30; week 8, lost to Memphis 34-41; week 9, beat Temple 17-9; week 10, beat South Florida 20-17.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will East Carolina make the College Football Playoff?
- East Carolina is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.9 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 1.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does East Carolina need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, East Carolina makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 3.6% of seasons. Winning it puts East Carolina at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 95.0% of seasons.
- Who should East Carolina fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on East Carolina's playoff odds.
- What is East Carolina's toughest game left?
- At Army in week 12, with a 40.9% chance to win.
- How are East Carolina's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in East Carolina's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.