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Charlotte playoff odds
Charlotte makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Charlotte playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Charlotte is 1-8 (1-4 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 1.5 projected wins.
That is the 72nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Charlotte fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Charlotte's playoff odds.
What Charlotte needs
Even at 4-8, Charlotte makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs East Carolina | 18.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Tulsa | 7.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Navy | 21.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Charlotte's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 6.7% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 31.4% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 61.3% | <0.1% |
Charlotte's results
week 1, lost to The Citadel 41-43; week 2, lost to Ole Miss 9-41; week 3, lost to App State 21-26; week 4, lost to Louisiana 7-34; week 5, lost to Memphis 8-59; week 6, lost to North Texas 10-50; week 7, beat Temple 38-31; week 9, lost to Tulane 31-38; week 10, lost to UAB 12-23.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Charlotte make the College Football Playoff?
- Charlotte is 1-8 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 1.5 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Charlotte need to make the playoff?
- Even at 4-8, Charlotte makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Charlotte fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Charlotte's playoff odds.
- What is Charlotte's toughest game left?
- At Tulsa in week 12, with a 7.0% chance to win.
- How are Charlotte's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Charlotte's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.