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Tulane playoff odds
Tulane makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Tulane playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Tulane is 4-5 (2-3 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.1 projected wins.
That is the 124th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Tulane fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Tulane's playoff odds.
What Tulane needs
Even at 7-5, Tulane makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 30.6% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Rice | 57.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs North Texas | 26.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at South Florida | 27.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Tulane's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 5.6% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 25.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 44.0% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 25.3% | <0.1% |
Tulane's results
week 1, lost to Duke 3-17; week 2, beat South Alabama 28-24; week 3, lost to Kansas State 20-31; week 4, beat Southern Miss 24-21; week 6, lost to Army 17-20; week 7, beat Memphis 31-17; week 8, lost to UTSA 19-42; week 9, beat Charlotte 38-31; week 10, lost to Tulsa 10-60.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?
- Tulane is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.1 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Tulane need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Tulane makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 30.6% of seasons.
- Who should Tulane fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Tulane's playoff odds.
- What is Tulane's toughest game left?
- Hosting North Texas in week 12, with a 26.3% chance to win.
- How are Tulane's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Tulane's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.