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Kansas State playoff odds
Kansas State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Kansas State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Kansas State is 4-5 (1-5 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.0 projected wins.
That is the 88th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Kansas State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Kansas State's playoff odds.
What Kansas State needs
Even at 7-5, Kansas State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 28.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at TCU | 29.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Arizona | 30.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Iowa State | 42.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Kansas State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 5.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 22.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 31.0% | <0.1% |
Kansas State's results
week 1, beat Nicholls 71-3; week 2, beat Washington State 34-7; week 3, beat Tulane 31-20; week 4, lost to Cincinnati 26-31; week 6, lost to Houston 16-35; week 7, beat Kansas 35-24; week 8, lost to Arizona State 17-28; week 9, lost to Colorado 24-27; week 10, lost to Oklahoma State 28-66.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Kansas State make the College Football Playoff?
- Kansas State is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.0 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Kansas State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Kansas State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 28.0% of seasons.
- Who should Kansas State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Kansas State's playoff odds.
- What is Kansas State's toughest game left?
- At TCU in week 11, with a 29.4% chance to win.
- How are Kansas State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Kansas State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.