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Kansas playoff odds
Kansas makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Kansas playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Kansas is 3-6 (1-5 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.0 projected wins.
That is the 87th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Kansas fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Kansas's playoff odds.
What Kansas needs
Even at 6-6, Kansas makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 4.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at West Virginia | 49.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs BYU | 30.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Oklahoma State | 22.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Kansas's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 4.8% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 23.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 42.7% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 29.4% | <0.1% |
Kansas's results
week 1, beat Long Island University 51-6; week 2, lost to Missouri 21-38; week 3, lost to Arizona State 17-24; week 5, beat Middle Tennessee 55-0; week 6, lost to Utah 24-41; week 7, lost to Kansas State 24-35; week 8, beat Baylor 25-24; week 9, lost to TCU 16-22; week 10, lost to UCF 32-33.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Kansas make the College Football Playoff?
- Kansas is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.0 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Kansas need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Kansas makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 4.8% of seasons.
- Who should Kansas fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Kansas's playoff odds.
- What is Kansas's toughest game left?
- At Oklahoma State in week 13, with a 22.6% chance to win.
- How are Kansas's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Kansas's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.