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Utah playoff odds
Utah makes the College Football Playoff in 90.7% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Utah playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Utah is 9-0 (6-0 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 90.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 78.0%), wins the Big 12 in 49.3%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 57.0% and wins the national title in 3.89%, with 11.2 projected wins.
That is the 5th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 2.
Who Utah fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Utah's playoff odds the most.
- Arkansas over South Carolina, worth 1.55%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 1.36%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 1.27%
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 1.15%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 1.08%
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 1.04%
What Utah needs
Utah can afford one loss. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 99.7%, at 10-2 in 58.0%. The game that decides the most is at TCU in week 12: 98.0% with a win, 74.0% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 89.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Utah at 100.0% and losing it at 92.3%; missing it leaves 39.2%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Arizona | 57.9% | 98.6% | 79.9% |
| Week 12 | at TCU | 69.8% | 98.0% | 74.0% |
| Week 13 | vs West Virginia | 89.6% | 94.3% | 60.0% |
Utah's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 12-0 | 38.4% | 100.0% |
| 11-1 | 42.6% | 99.7% |
| 10-2 | 17.0% | 58.0% |
| 9-3 | 2.1% | 1.0% |
Utah's results
week 1, beat Idaho 66-14; week 2, beat Arkansas 43-10; week 3, beat Utah State 33-0; week 4, beat Iowa State 31-17; week 6, beat Kansas 41-24; week 7, beat Colorado 27-24; week 8, beat Houston 21-13; week 9, beat Cincinnati 49-25; week 10, beat BYU 28-20.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Utah make the College Football Playoff?
- Utah is 9-0 and makes the playoff in 90.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 11.2 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 49.3% and the national title in 3.89%.
- What does Utah need to make the playoff?
- Utah can afford one loss. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 99.7%, at 10-2 in 58.0%. The game that decides the most is at TCU in week 12: 98.0% with a win, 74.0% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 89.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Utah at 100.0% and losing it at 92.3%; missing it leaves 39.2%.
- Who should Utah fans root for in week 11?
- Arkansas over South Carolina, worth 1.55% in playoff odds, then Texas A&M over Tennessee.
- What is Utah's toughest game left?
- At Arizona in week 11, with a 57.9% chance to win.
- How are Utah's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Utah's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.