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Oklahoma playoff odds
Oklahoma makes the College Football Playoff in 1.5% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Oklahoma playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Oklahoma is 5-4 (3-3 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 1.5% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.2%), wins the SEC in 0.2% and wins the national title in 0.02%, with 6.5 projected wins.
That is the 33rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Oklahoma fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Oklahoma's playoff odds the most.
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 1.14%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 0.80%
- Vanderbilt over Alabama, worth 0.76%
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 0.68%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.57%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.48%
What Oklahoma needs
Oklahoma needs help even if it wins out. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 10.6%. The game that decides the most is at Missouri in week 13: 3.3% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 0.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Oklahoma at 100.0% and losing it at 6.5%; missing it leaves 1.3%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 84.3% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Ole Miss | 44.3% | 3.3% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Texas A&M | 58.0% | 2.5% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Missouri | 43.8% | 3.3% | <0.1% |
Oklahoma's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 13.7% | 10.6% |
| 7-5 | 34.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 36.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 15.7% | <0.1% |
Oklahoma's results
week 1, beat UTEP 51-0; week 2, lost to Michigan 10-17; week 3, beat New Mexico 14-6; week 4, lost to Georgia 13-41; week 6, beat Texas 27-24; week 7, lost to Kentucky 13-21; week 8, beat Mississippi State 23-15; week 9, lost to South Carolina 25-42; week 10, beat Florida 23-7.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Oklahoma make the College Football Playoff?
- Oklahoma is 5-4 and makes the playoff in 1.5% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.5 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 0.2% and the national title in 0.02%.
- What does Oklahoma need to make the playoff?
- Oklahoma needs help even if it wins out. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 10.6%. The game that decides the most is at Missouri in week 13: 3.3% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 0.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Oklahoma at 100.0% and losing it at 6.5%; missing it leaves 1.3%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 84.3% of seasons.
- Who should Oklahoma fans root for in week 11?
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 1.14% in playoff odds, then Texas A&M over Tennessee.
- What is Oklahoma's toughest game left?
- At Missouri in week 13, with a 43.8% chance to win.
- How are Oklahoma's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Oklahoma's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.