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New Mexico playoff odds
New Mexico makes the College Football Playoff in 10.9% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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New Mexico playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
New Mexico is 8-1 (5-0 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 10.9% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 29.1%), wins the Mountain West in 70.1% and wins the national title in 0.02%, with 10.5 projected wins.
That is the 22nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who New Mexico fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move New Mexico's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 30.29%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.29%
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 2.10%
- Akron over Western Michigan, worth 1.90%
- North Dakota State over Hawai'i, worth 1.44%
- New Mexico State over Missouri State, worth 1.29%
What New Mexico needs
New Mexico needs help even if it wins out. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 18.2%. The game that decides the most is against UNLV in week 11: 13.3% with a win, 0.3% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 92.8% of seasons. Winning it puts New Mexico at 14.0% and losing it at 4.7%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs UNLV | 81.1% | 13.3% | 0.3% |
| Week 12 | at Wyoming | 87.2% | 12.4% | 0.2% |
| Week 13 | vs Air Force | 81.0% | 13.3% | 0.3% |
New Mexico's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 59.0% | 18.2% |
| 10-2 | 32.2% | 0.4% |
| 9-3 | 8.0% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 0.9% | <0.1% |
New Mexico's results
week 1, beat Central Michigan 38-7; week 2, beat Mercyhurst 70-7; week 3, lost to Oklahoma 6-14; week 4, beat New Mexico State 42-18; week 5, beat UTEP 61-7; week 7, beat Hawai'i 21-10; week 8, beat North Dakota State 21-16; week 9, beat San José State 21-16; week 10, beat Nevada 31-3.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will New Mexico make the College Football Playoff?
- New Mexico is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 10.9% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.5 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in 70.1% and the national title in 0.02%.
- What does New Mexico need to make the playoff?
- New Mexico needs help even if it wins out. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 18.2%. The game that decides the most is against UNLV in week 11: 13.3% with a win, 0.3% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 92.8% of seasons. Winning it puts New Mexico at 14.0% and losing it at 4.7%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should New Mexico fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 30.29% in playoff odds, then Oklahoma over Ole Miss.
- What is New Mexico's toughest game left?
- Hosting Air Force in week 13, with a 81.0% chance to win.
- How are New Mexico's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in New Mexico's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.