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Northern Illinois playoff odds
Northern Illinois makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Northern Illinois playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Northern Illinois is 0-9 (0-5 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 1.0 projected wins.
That is the 106th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Northern Illinois fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Northern Illinois's playoff odds.
What Northern Illinois needs
Even at 3-9, Northern Illinois makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Nevada | 28.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at North Dakota State | 5.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs UTEP | 64.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Northern Illinois's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 3-9 | 1.6% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 21.1% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 51.8% | <0.1% |
| 0-12 | 25.5% | <0.1% |
Northern Illinois's results
week 1, lost to Iowa 0-40; week 2, lost to Illinois State 24-28; week 3, lost to Arizona 17-42; week 4, lost to Georgia State 14-35; week 6, lost to Air Force 7-28; week 7, lost to Wyoming 23-41; week 8, lost to Hawai'i 21-56; week 9, lost to UNLV 24-31; week 10, lost to San José State 19-30.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Northern Illinois make the College Football Playoff?
- Northern Illinois is 0-9 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 1.0 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Northern Illinois need to make the playoff?
- Even at 3-9, Northern Illinois makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Northern Illinois fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Northern Illinois's playoff odds.
- What is Northern Illinois's toughest game left?
- At North Dakota State in week 12, with a 5.8% chance to win.
- How are Northern Illinois's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Northern Illinois's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.