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UNLV playoff odds
UNLV makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UNLV playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UNLV is 5-3 (3-1 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in 8.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.3 projected wins.
That is the 57th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who UNLV fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move UNLV's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01%
What UNLV needs
Even at 9-3, UNLV makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at New Mexico in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 26.8% of seasons. Winning it puts UNLV at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 97.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | vs Wyoming | 78.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | at New Mexico | 18.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at San José State | 65.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Nevada | 71.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
UNLV's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 8.9% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 37.5% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 35.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 15.4% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 2.9% | <0.1% |
UNLV's results
week 1, lost to Memphis 21-27; week 1, beat Hawai'i 21-6; week 2, lost to North Texas 6-44; week 4, beat Akron 38-10; week 5, beat California 39-31; week 6, beat North Dakota State 13-7; week 7, lost to Air Force 31-41; week 9, beat Northern Illinois 31-24.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UNLV make the College Football Playoff?
- UNLV is 5-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.3 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in 8.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UNLV need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, UNLV makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at New Mexico in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 26.8% of seasons. Winning it puts UNLV at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 97.1% of seasons.
- Who should UNLV fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01% in playoff odds.
- What is UNLV's toughest game left?
- At New Mexico in week 11, with a 18.9% chance to win.
- How are UNLV's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UNLV's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.