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Hawai'i playoff odds
Hawai'i makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Hawai'i playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Hawai'i is 2-6 (1-4 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.5 projected wins.
That is the 85th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Hawai'i fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Hawai'i's playoff odds.
What Hawai'i needs
Even at 6-6, Hawai'i makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 12.7% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | at UTEP | 78.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | vs North Dakota State | 32.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Nevada | 43.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Sacramento State | 92.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Hawai'i's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 12.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 36.5% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 37.6% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 12.1% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 1.2% | <0.1% |
Hawai'i's results
week 1, lost to Stanford 27-37; week 1, lost to UNLV 6-21; week 2, beat New Mexico State 29-19; week 4, lost to Wyoming 10-27; week 5, lost to San José State 16-20; week 6, lost to Arizona State 12-30; week 7, lost to New Mexico 10-21; week 8, beat Northern Illinois 56-21.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Hawai'i make the College Football Playoff?
- Hawai'i is 2-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.5 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Hawai'i need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Hawai'i makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 12.7% of seasons.
- Who should Hawai'i fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Hawai'i's playoff odds.
- What is Hawai'i's toughest game left?
- Hosting North Dakota State in week 11, with a 32.8% chance to win.
- How are Hawai'i's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Hawai'i's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.