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Sacramento State playoff odds
Sacramento State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Sacramento State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Sacramento State is 2-8 (1-6 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 2.2 projected wins.
That is the 112th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Sacramento State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Sacramento State's playoff odds.
What Sacramento State needs
Even at 4-8, Sacramento State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Central Michigan | 10.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Hawai'i | 7.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Sacramento State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 16.4% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 82.4% | <0.1% |
Sacramento State's results
week 1, lost to Eastern Michigan 17-28; week 1, beat Mississippi Valley State 52-0; week 2, lost to Fresno State 3-49; week 3, lost to North Dakota State 10-31; week 4, lost to Massachusetts 6-35; week 6, lost to Bowling Green 10-38; week 7, lost to Ohio 7-48; week 8, lost to Ball State 17-34; week 9, beat Kent State 31-10; week 10, lost to Toledo 17-20.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Sacramento State make the College Football Playoff?
- Sacramento State is 2-8 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 2.2 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Sacramento State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 4-8, Sacramento State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Sacramento State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Sacramento State's playoff odds.
- What is Sacramento State's toughest game left?
- At Hawai'i in week 13, with a 7.9% chance to win.
- How are Sacramento State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Sacramento State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.