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North Dakota State playoff odds
North Dakota State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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North Dakota State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
North Dakota State is 7-2 (4-2 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the Mountain West in 16.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.3 projected wins.
That is the 44th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who North Dakota State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move North Dakota State's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.12%
- New Mexico over UNLV, worth 0.02%
- Akron over Western Michigan, worth 0.02%
- Jacksonville State over Western Kentucky, worth 0.01%
- UConn over James Madison, worth 0.01%
- Air Force over San José State, worth 0.01%
What North Dakota State needs
Even at 10-2, North Dakota State makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Hawai'i in week 11: 0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 55.2% of seasons. Winning it puts North Dakota State at 0.2% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Hawai'i | 67.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Northern Illinois | 94.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at San José State | 73.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
North Dakota State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 48.2% | 0.1% |
| 9-3 | 39.2% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 11.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 0.9% | <0.1% |
North Dakota State's results
week 1, beat Jacksonville State 33-7; week 1, beat Fordham 38-0; week 2, beat Air Force 38-32; week 3, beat Sacramento State 31-10; week 5, beat Wyoming 28-0; week 6, lost to UNLV 7-13; week 7, beat Nevada 31-17; week 8, lost to New Mexico 16-21; week 9, beat UTEP 31-7.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will North Dakota State make the College Football Playoff?
- North Dakota State is 7-2 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.3 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in 16.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does North Dakota State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, North Dakota State makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Hawai'i in week 11: 0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 55.2% of seasons. Winning it puts North Dakota State at 0.2% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should North Dakota State fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.12% in playoff odds, then New Mexico over UNLV.
- What is North Dakota State's toughest game left?
- At Hawai'i in week 11, with a 67.2% chance to win.
- How are North Dakota State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in North Dakota State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.