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Jacksonville State playoff odds
Jacksonville State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Jacksonville State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Jacksonville State is 7-2 (5-0 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in 21.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.0 projected wins.
That is the 58th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Jacksonville State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Jacksonville State's playoff odds.
What Jacksonville State needs
Even at 10-2, Jacksonville State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Delaware in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 97.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Jacksonville State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Western Kentucky | 66.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Missouri State | 77.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Delaware | 53.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Jacksonville State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 30.1% | <0.1% |
| 9-3 | 42.1% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 23.0% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 4.9% | <0.1% |
Jacksonville State's results
week 1, lost to North Dakota State 7-33; week 1, beat Eastern Kentucky 49-7; week 2, lost to Ohio 27-29; week 3, beat Georgia Southern 31-27; week 4, beat Middle Tennessee 23-13; week 6, beat Kennesaw State 27-26; week 7, beat Florida International 27-24; week 9, beat New Mexico State 24-0; week 10, beat Sam Houston 47-14.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Jacksonville State make the College Football Playoff?
- Jacksonville State is 7-2 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.0 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in 21.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Jacksonville State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, Jacksonville State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Delaware in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 97.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Jacksonville State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Jacksonville State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Jacksonville State's playoff odds.
- What is Jacksonville State's toughest game left?
- At Delaware in week 13, with a 53.1% chance to win.
- How are Jacksonville State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Jacksonville State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.