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Florida International playoff odds
Florida International makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Florida International playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Florida International is 4-5 (2-3 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.5 projected wins.
That is the 80th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Florida International fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Florida International's playoff odds.
What Florida International needs
Even at 7-5, Florida International makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 48.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Delaware | 34.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Kennesaw State | 40.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Sam Houston | 74.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Florida International's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 12.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 36.4% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 39.3% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 11.9% | <0.1% |
Florida International's results
week 1, lost to South Florida 9-19; week 2, beat Buffalo 33-20; week 3, lost to Florida Atlantic 10-16; week 4, beat Long Island University 20-3; week 6, beat New Mexico State 22-3; week 7, lost to Jacksonville State 24-27; week 8, lost to Middle Tennessee 23-26; week 9, lost to Liberty 10-49; week 10, beat Missouri State 23-20.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Florida International make the College Football Playoff?
- Florida International is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.5 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Florida International need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Florida International makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 48.8% of seasons.
- Who should Florida International fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Florida International's playoff odds.
- What is Florida International's toughest game left?
- At Delaware in week 11, with a 34.0% chance to win.
- How are Florida International's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Florida International's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.