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South Florida playoff odds
South Florida makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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South Florida playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
South Florida is 6-3 (2-3 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in 0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.7 projected wins.
That is the 117th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who South Florida fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on South Florida's playoff odds.
What South Florida needs
Even at 9-3, South Florida makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Memphis | 40.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Florida Atlantic | 54.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Tulane | 72.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
South Florida's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 18.5% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 39.9% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 32.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 9.3% | <0.1% |
South Florida's results
week 1, beat Florida International 19-9; week 2, beat Army 28-24; week 3, beat Delaware State 59-17; week 4, beat Bowling Green 14-6; week 5, lost to Temple 13-17; week 6, lost to UTSA 24-31; week 7, beat Kent State 29-2; week 9, beat UAB 30-10; week 10, lost to East Carolina 17-20.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will South Florida make the College Football Playoff?
- South Florida is 6-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.7 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does South Florida need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, South Florida makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should South Florida fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on South Florida's playoff odds.
- What is South Florida's toughest game left?
- Hosting Memphis in week 11, with a 40.6% chance to win.
- How are South Florida's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in South Florida's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.