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Memphis playoff odds
Memphis makes the College Football Playoff in 0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Memphis playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Memphis is 7-2 (4-1 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.8%), wins the American Athletic in 24.9% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.1 projected wins.
That is the 43rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Memphis fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Memphis's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.23%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 0.15%
- San Diego State over Utah State, worth 0.03%
- Tulane over Rice, worth 0.02%
- North Texas over UTSA, worth 0.02%
- Air Force over San José State, worth 0.02%
What Memphis needs
Even at 10-2, Memphis makes the playoff in 0.2% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at South Florida in week 11: 0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 48.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Memphis at 0.3% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at South Florida | 59.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Navy | 65.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Temple | 85.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
Memphis's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 35.6% | 0.2% |
| 9-3 | 42.0% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 19.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 3.1% | <0.1% |
Memphis's results
week 1, beat UNLV 27-21; week 1, beat Arkansas State 42-24; week 2, lost to Boise State 20-38; week 3, beat UT Martin 45-21; week 5, beat Charlotte 59-8; week 6, beat UAB 38-13; week 7, lost to Tulane 17-31; week 8, beat East Carolina 41-34; week 9, beat Army 49-22.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Memphis make the College Football Playoff?
- Memphis is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.1 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 24.9% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Memphis need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, Memphis makes the playoff in 0.2% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at South Florida in week 11: 0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 48.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Memphis at 0.3% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Memphis fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.23% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is Memphis's toughest game left?
- At South Florida in week 11, with a 59.4% chance to win.
- How are Memphis's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Memphis's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.