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Rice playoff odds
Rice makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Rice playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Rice is 1-8 (0-5 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 2.0 projected wins.
That is the 110th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Rice fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Rice's playoff odds.
What Rice needs
Even at 4-8, Rice makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Tulane | 42.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Temple | 30.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Army | 26.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Rice's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 4.9% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 22.0% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 41.2% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 32.0% | <0.1% |
Rice's results
week 1, beat Houston Christian 31-3; week 2, lost to Notre Dame 0-52; week 3, lost to Western Michigan 21-28; week 4, lost to Fresno State 24-38; week 5, lost to UTSA 14-16; week 6, lost to East Carolina 12-28; week 7, lost to Tulsa 17-38; week 8, lost to Florida Atlantic 49-51; week 10, lost to North Texas 23-52.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Rice make the College Football Playoff?
- Rice is 1-8 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 2.0 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Rice need to make the playoff?
- Even at 4-8, Rice makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Rice fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Rice's playoff odds.
- What is Rice's toughest game left?
- Hosting Army in week 13, with a 26.9% chance to win.
- How are Rice's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Rice's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.