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Army playoff odds
Army makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Army playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Army is 5-4 (4-2 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in 6.8% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.9 projected wins.
That is the 65th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Army fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Army's playoff odds.
What Army needs
Even at 8-4, Army makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 19.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Army at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 93.5% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 12 | vs East Carolina | 59.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Rice | 73.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 15 | vs Navy | 56.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Army's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 27.2% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 40.8% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 25.6% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 6.5% | <0.1% |
Army's results
week 1, beat Bryant 59-3; week 2, lost to South Florida 24-28; week 4, beat Temple 21-17; week 5, lost to Louisiana Tech 29-31; week 6, beat Tulane 20-17; week 7, beat Florida Atlantic 56-24; week 8, beat Tulsa 38-35; week 9, lost to Memphis 22-49; week 10, lost to Air Force 21-24.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Army make the College Football Playoff?
- Army is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.9 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 6.8% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Army need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Army makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 19.5% of seasons. Winning it puts Army at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 93.5% of seasons.
- Who should Army fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Army's playoff odds.
- What is Army's toughest game left?
- Hosting Navy in week 15, with a 56.5% chance to win.
- How are Army's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Army's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.