The Big Ten title race

Updated November 8, after week 9, from 2.5 million simulated seasons.

1. Indiana42.4%
2. UCLA20.8%
3. Oregon14.2%
4. Ohio State12.8%
5. USC6.0%
6. Everyone else3.8%

Team	Conf	Overall	Title game	Wins Big Ten	Playoff
Indiana	5-1	8-1	63.0%	42.4%	62.9%
UCLA	6-0	9-0	70.9%	20.8%	67.0%
Oregon	4-2	6-3	24.7%	14.2%	24.6%
Ohio State	4-2	6-3	18.9%	12.8%	29.4%
USC	4-2	7-2	12.1%	6.0%	13.0%
Iowa	4-2	7-2	4.1%	1.7%	9.3%
Wisconsin	4-2	6-3	4.8%	1.6%	1.7%
Illinois	4-2	6-3	1.5%	0.4%	0.4%
Northwestern	3-3	6-3	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.3%
Minnesota	3-3	5-4	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
MarylandOut	1-5	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Michigan	2-4	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Michigan StateOut	1-5	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Nebraska	2-4	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Penn State	2-4	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Purdue	2-4	3-6	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
RutgersOut	1-5	2-7	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%
Washington	2-4	5-4	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%

Clinching scenarios

• IndianaClinches by winning out.
• UCLAClinches this week with a win over Illinois and Purdue beating Iowa and Northwestern beating Ohio State and Maryland beating Wisconsin and Indiana beating USC and Michigan beating Oregon. Clinches by winning out.

Need help even if they win out: Oregon, Ohio State, USC, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois.

Out of the race: Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers.

Likeliest title games

1. 43.6% of seasonsIndianaIU73%27%UCLAUCLA
2. 12.3% of seasonsOregonORE67%33%UCLAUCLA
3. 7.2% of seasonsOhio StateOSU78%22%UCLAUCLA
4. 7.1% of seasonsIndianaIU54%46%OregonORE
5. 6.8% of seasonsOhio StateOSU57%43%IndianaIU
6. 4.5% of seasonsUSCUSC63%37%UCLAUCLA

The games that decide the race

1. 1USCatIndianaWeek 11Sat 3:30 PM ET, CBS0.33Most at stakeIndiana75.5USC44.4Oregon21.6
2. 2USCatUCLAWeek 13Sat, time TBA0.22Most at stakeUCLA44.9USC24.1Ohio State8.0
3. 3UCLAatMichiganWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.19Most at stakeUCLA38.8Ohio State11.2Oregon9.5
4. 4IllinoisatUCLAWeek 11Fri 9:00 PM ET, Fox0.19Most at stakeUCLA44.8Ohio State17.5Oregon10.2
5. 5IndianaatWashingtonWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.17Most at stakeIndiana49.9Oregon27.0Ohio State12.6
6. 6Ohio StateatNebraskaWeek 12Sat, time TBA0.11Most at stakeOhio State25.6UCLA8.3Indiana6.0
7. 7NebraskaatIowaWeek 13Fri 12:00 PM ET, CBS0.10Most at stakeOhio State14.1Oregon8.4UCLA7.3
8. 8MichiganatOregonWeek 11Sat 3:30 PM ET, FS10.10Most at stakeOregon30.3Indiana8.3Ohio State6.9

How the Big Ten breaks ties

The top two teams in the conference standings meet in the title game. It is played at a neutral site.

Ties are broken in this order:

1. Head-to-head results among the tied teams
2. Record against all common conference opponents
3. Record against common conference opponents, starting with the highest-placed and working down the standings
4. Combined conference winning percentage of conference opponents
5. SportSource Analytics' team rating score

Questions

Who is favored to win the Big Ten in 2026?

Indiana wins the Big Ten in 42.4% of simulated seasons, ahead of UCLA (20.8%) and Oregon (14.2%).

Who will play in the Big Ten championship game?

The likeliest pairing is Indiana against UCLA, in 43.6% of seasons. Indiana reaches the game in 63.0% and UCLA in 70.9%.

How many Big Ten teams will make the College Football Playoff?

2.1 on average across the simulated seasons. UCLA makes it in 67.0%, Indiana makes it in 62.9%, Ohio State makes it in 29.4%.

Other conferences: ACC American Athletic Big 12 Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

Back to the guide