simulating…
Michigan State playoff odds
Michigan State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Michigan State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Michigan State is 3-6 (1-5 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.2 projected wins.
That is the 97th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Michigan State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Michigan State's playoff odds.
What Michigan State needs
Even at 6-6, Michigan State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 6.2% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Washington | 44.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Oregon | 17.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Rutgers | 60.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Michigan State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 6.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 30.7% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 42.7% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 20.3% | <0.1% |
Michigan State's results
week 1, beat Toledo 30-20; week 2, beat Eastern Michigan 35-7; week 3, lost to Notre Dame 10-27; week 4, lost to Nebraska 13-31; week 5, lost to Wisconsin 3-31; week 6, lost to Illinois 37-38; week 7, lost to Northwestern 21-24; week 8, lost to UCLA 10-28; week 10, beat Michigan 15-6.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Michigan State make the College Football Playoff?
- Michigan State is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.2 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Michigan State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Michigan State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 6.2% of seasons.
- Who should Michigan State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Michigan State's playoff odds.
- What is Michigan State's toughest game left?
- Hosting Oregon in week 12, with a 17.7% chance to win.
- How are Michigan State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Michigan State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.