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Toledo playoff odds
Toledo makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Toledo playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Toledo is 7-2 (4-1 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in 26.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.2 projected wins.
That is the 55th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Toledo fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Toledo's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01%
- Sacramento State over Central Michigan, worth <0.01%
What Toledo needs
Even at 10-2, Toledo makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Ohio in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 47.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Toledo at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Massachusetts | 80.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Bowling Green | 84.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Ohio | 53.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Toledo's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| 9-3 | 43.7% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 15.6% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 2.1% | <0.1% |
Toledo's results
week 1, lost to Michigan State 20-30; week 2, beat Central Connecticut 63-10; week 3, beat Temple 49-48; week 4, beat San Diego State 41-16; week 5, beat Ball State 39-24; week 6, lost to Buffalo 8-23; week 7, beat Eastern Michigan 34-14; week 8, beat Western Michigan 45-38; week 10, beat Sacramento State 20-17.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Toledo make the College Football Playoff?
- Toledo is 7-2 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.2 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in 26.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Toledo need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, Toledo makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Ohio in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 47.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Toledo at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Toledo fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01% in playoff odds, then Sacramento State over Central Michigan.
- What is Toledo's toughest game left?
- At Ohio in week 13, with a 53.3% chance to win.
- How are Toledo's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Toledo's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.