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San Diego State playoff odds
San Diego State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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San Diego State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
San Diego State is 4-5 (3-2 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in 0.7% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.5 projected wins.
That is the 114th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who San Diego State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on San Diego State's playoff odds.
What San Diego State needs
Even at 6-5, San Diego State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 6.9% of seasons. Winning it puts San Diego State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.6% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Utah State | 46.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Boise State | 6.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
San Diego State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | 3.6% | <0.1% |
| 5-6 | 45.6% | <0.1% |
| 4-7 | 50.8% | <0.1% |
San Diego State's results
week 1, beat Portland State 53-20; week 2, lost to UCLA 10-28; week 3, lost to James Madison 13-26; week 4, lost to Toledo 16-41; week 5, beat Texas State 31-29; week 6, lost to Oregon State 14-66; week 7, beat Fresno State 26-23; week 8, lost to Colorado State 49-56; week 9, beat Washington State 26-20.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will San Diego State make the College Football Playoff?
- San Diego State is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.5 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in 0.7% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does San Diego State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-5, San Diego State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 6.9% of seasons. Winning it puts San Diego State at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.6% of seasons.
- Who should San Diego State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on San Diego State's playoff odds.
- What is San Diego State's toughest game left?
- At Boise State in week 12, with a 6.6% chance to win.
- How are San Diego State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in San Diego State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.