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Washington State playoff odds
Washington State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Washington State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Washington State is 1-8 (0-5 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 2.8 projected wins.
That is the 135th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Washington State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Washington State's playoff odds.
What Washington State needs
Even at 4-8, Washington State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Colorado State | 66.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Texas State | 21.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs TBD | 94.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Washington State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 15.0% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 55.5% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 28.0% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 1.5% | <0.1% |
Washington State's results
week 1, lost to Washington 10-24; week 2, lost to Kansas State 7-34; week 3, beat Duquesne 48-7; week 4, lost to Arizona 24-34; week 5, lost to Fresno State 6-26; week 6, lost to Utah State 16-17; week 7, lost to Oregon State 30-48; week 8, lost to Boise State 10-31; week 9, lost to San Diego State 20-26.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Washington State make the College Football Playoff?
- Washington State is 1-8 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 2.8 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Washington State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 4-8, Washington State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Washington State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Washington State's playoff odds.
- What is Washington State's toughest game left?
- At Texas State in week 12, with a 21.4% chance to win.
- How are Washington State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Washington State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.