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Arizona playoff odds
Arizona makes the College Football Playoff in 13.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Arizona playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Arizona is 7-2 (4-2 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 13.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 9.6%), wins the Big 12 in 5.0%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.2% and wins the national title in 0.15%, with 8.9 projected wins.
That is the 20th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 23.
Who Arizona fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Arizona's playoff odds the most.
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 2.28%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.04%
- West Virginia over Kansas, worth 2.03%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 1.88%
- BYU over Baylor, worth 1.73%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 1.67%
What Arizona needs
Arizona has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 50.9%, at 9-3 in 0.4%. The game that decides the most is against Utah in week 11: 31.6% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 11.2% of seasons. Winning it puts Arizona at 100.0% and losing it at 34.3%; missing it leaves 7.0%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Utah | 42.1% | 31.6% | 0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Kansas State | 69.5% | 19.2% | 0.2% |
| Week 13 | vs Arizona State | 80.7% | 16.6% | 0.1% |
Arizona's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 25.9% | 50.9% |
| 9-3 | 45.0% | 0.4% |
| 8-4 | 24.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 4.7% | <0.1% |
Arizona's results
week 1, beat Northern Arizona 35-7; week 2, lost to BYU 17-28; week 3, beat Northern Illinois 42-17; week 4, beat Washington State 34-24; week 5, beat Cincinnati 34-7; week 6, beat West Virginia 52-31; week 8, beat Iowa State 39-3; week 9, lost to Texas Tech 26-34; week 10, beat TCU 29-28.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Arizona make the College Football Playoff?
- Arizona is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 13.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.9 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 5.0% and the national title in 0.15%.
- What does Arizona need to make the playoff?
- Arizona has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 50.9%, at 9-3 in 0.4%. The game that decides the most is against Utah in week 11: 31.6% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 11.2% of seasons. Winning it puts Arizona at 100.0% and losing it at 34.3%; missing it leaves 7.0%.
- Who should Arizona fans root for in week 11?
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 2.28% in playoff odds, then Oklahoma over Ole Miss.
- What is Arizona's toughest game left?
- Hosting Utah in week 11, with a 42.1% chance to win.
- How are Arizona's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Arizona's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.