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TCU playoff odds
TCU makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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TCU playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
TCU is 4-5 (2-4 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.2 projected wins.
That is the 121st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who TCU fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on TCU's playoff odds.
What TCU needs
Even at 7-5, TCU makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 35.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Kansas State | 70.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Utah | 30.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Texas Tech | 22.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
TCU's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 6.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 28.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 47.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 18.0% | <0.1% |
TCU's results
week 1, lost to North Carolina 10-15; week 2, beat Grambling 63-7; week 3, beat Arkansas State 31-7; week 4, lost to UCF 13-21; week 5, lost to BYU 10-17; week 7, beat Baylor 17-6; week 8, lost to West Virginia 20-24; week 9, beat Kansas 22-16; week 10, lost to Arizona 28-29.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will TCU make the College Football Playoff?
- TCU is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.2 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does TCU need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, TCU makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 35.0% of seasons.
- Who should TCU fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on TCU's playoff odds.
- What is TCU's toughest game left?
- At Texas Tech in week 13, with a 22.5% chance to win.
- How are TCU's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in TCU's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.