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North Carolina playoff odds
North Carolina makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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North Carolina playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
North Carolina is 5-4 (2-3 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.8 projected wins.
That is the 45th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who North Carolina fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move North Carolina's playoff odds the most.
- Miami over Duke, worth 0.02%
- Georgia Tech over Clemson, worth 0.01%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.01%
- TCU over Kansas State, worth 0.01%
- Syracuse over NC State, worth 0.01%
- Pittsburgh over Florida State, worth 0.01%
What North Carolina needs
Even at 8-4, North Carolina makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is against Louisville in week 11: 0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 93.3% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Louisville | 41.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Virginia | 56.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs NC State | 80.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
North Carolina's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 21.1% | 0.1% |
| 7-5 | 42.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 30.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 6.7% | <0.1% |
North Carolina's results
week 1, beat TCU 15-10; week 2, beat East Tennessee State 35-3; week 3, lost to Clemson 20-28; week 5, lost to Notre Dame 26-37; week 6, beat Pittsburgh 21-17; week 7, beat Duke 24-20; week 8, lost to Syracuse 30-31; week 9, lost to Miami 35-38; week 10, beat UConn 38-21.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will North Carolina make the College Football Playoff?
- North Carolina is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.8 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does North Carolina need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, North Carolina makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is against Louisville in week 11: 0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 93.3% of seasons.
- Who should North Carolina fans root for in week 11?
- Miami over Duke, worth 0.02% in playoff odds, then Georgia Tech over Clemson.
- What is North Carolina's toughest game left?
- Hosting Louisville in week 11, with a 41.4% chance to win.
- How are North Carolina's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in North Carolina's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.