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Boston College playoff odds
Boston College makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Boston College playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Boston College is 4-5 (2-4 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.4 projected wins.
That is the 67th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Boston College fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Boston College's playoff odds.
What Boston College needs
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Notre Dame | 1.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Syracuse | 41.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Miami | 1.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Boston College's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 1.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 41.4% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 56.8% | <0.1% |
Boston College's results
week 1, lost to Cincinnati 15-34; week 2, beat Rutgers 28-21; week 3, beat Maine 22-16; week 4, lost to Virginia Tech 14-21; week 5, lost to SMU 16-25; week 7, beat Pittsburgh 27-21; week 8, beat Georgia Tech 49-27; week 9, lost to Duke 2-47; week 10, lost to Florida State 24-31.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Boston College make the College Football Playoff?
- Boston College is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.4 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- Who should Boston College fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Boston College's playoff odds.
- What is Boston College's toughest game left?
- At Notre Dame in week 11, with a 1.6% chance to win.
- How are Boston College's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Boston College's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.