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Louisville playoff odds
Louisville makes the College Football Playoff in 4.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Louisville playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Louisville is 6-3 (5-2 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 4.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 1.8%), wins the ACC in 4.0% and wins the national title in 0.09%, with 7.8 projected wins.
That is the 26th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Louisville fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Louisville's playoff odds the most.
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 6.73%
- Duke over Miami, worth 0.68%
- Ole Miss over Oklahoma, worth 0.27%
- Iowa over Purdue, worth 0.25%
- Florida State over Pittsburgh, worth 0.22%
- Syracuse over NC State, worth 0.14%
What Louisville needs
Louisville needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 12.6%. The game that decides the most is at North Carolina in week 11: 6.8% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 13.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Louisville at 100.0% and losing it at 0.2%; missing it leaves 0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at North Carolina | 58.6% | 6.8% | 0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Pittsburgh | 73.3% | 5.5% | 0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Kentucky | 53.0% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
Louisville's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 25.5% | 12.6% |
| 8-4 | 40.8% | 2.1% |
| 7-5 | 26.8% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 6.9% | <0.1% |
Louisville's results
week 1, lost to Ole Miss 38-41; week 2, beat Villanova 59-13; week 3, beat SMU 41-31; week 4, lost to Wake Forest 27-30; week 5, lost to NC State 28-31; week 6, beat Florida State 44-20; week 7, beat Syracuse 34-26; week 9, beat Stanford 52-24; week 10, beat Georgia Tech 44-17.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Louisville make the College Football Playoff?
- Louisville is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 4.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.8 projected wins. It wins the ACC in 4.0% and the national title in 0.09%.
- What does Louisville need to make the playoff?
- Louisville needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 12.6%. The game that decides the most is at North Carolina in week 11: 6.8% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 13.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Louisville at 100.0% and losing it at 0.2%; missing it leaves 0.1%.
- Who should Louisville fans root for in week 11?
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 6.73% in playoff odds, then Duke over Miami.
- What is Louisville's toughest game left?
- At Kentucky in week 13, with a 53.0% chance to win.
- How are Louisville's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Louisville's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.