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NC State playoff odds
NC State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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NC State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
NC State is 4-5 (2-4 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.9 projected wins.
That is the 101st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who NC State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on NC State's playoff odds.
What NC State needs
Even at 7-5, NC State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 21.7% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Syracuse | 47.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Florida State | 22.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at North Carolina | 20.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
NC State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 3.1% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 18.6% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 43.4% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 34.9% | <0.1% |
NC State's results
week 1, lost to Virginia 8-34; week 2, beat Richmond 73-0; week 3, lost to Vanderbilt 31-35; week 4, beat App State 41-31; week 5, beat Louisville 31-28; week 6, lost to Wake Forest 14-38; week 8, lost to Stanford 28-31; week 9, beat California 31-10; week 10, lost to Duke 3-41.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will NC State make the College Football Playoff?
- NC State is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.9 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does NC State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, NC State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 21.7% of seasons.
- Who should NC State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on NC State's playoff odds.
- What is NC State's toughest game left?
- At North Carolina in week 13, with a 20.0% chance to win.
- How are NC State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in NC State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.