simulating…
Virginia playoff odds
Virginia makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Virginia playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Virginia is 4-5 (2-4 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.6 projected wins.
That is the 132nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Virginia fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Virginia's playoff odds.
What Virginia needs
Even at 7-5, Virginia makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 56.5% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs California | 80.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs North Carolina | 43.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Virginia Tech | 40.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Virginia's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 16.6% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 39.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 35.4% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 8.1% | <0.1% |
Virginia's results
week 1, beat NC State 34-8; week 2, beat Norfolk State 59-3; week 3, lost to West Virginia 27-38; week 4, beat Delaware 42-3; week 5, lost to Florida State 7-38; week 6, beat Syracuse 28-25; week 7, lost to SMU 13-23; week 8, lost to Duke 16-19; week 9, lost to Wake Forest 7-51.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Virginia make the College Football Playoff?
- Virginia is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.6 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Virginia need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Virginia makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 56.5% of seasons.
- Who should Virginia fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Virginia's playoff odds.
- What is Virginia's toughest game left?
- At Virginia Tech in week 13, with a 40.7% chance to win.
- How are Virginia's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Virginia's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.