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California playoff odds
California makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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California playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
California is 3-6 (2-4 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.0 projected wins.
That is the 70th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who California fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on California's playoff odds.
What California needs
Even at 6-6, California makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.7% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Virginia | 19.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Stanford | 64.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Pittsburgh | 21.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
California's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 3.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 22.2% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 49.4% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 24.7% | <0.1% |
California's results
week 1, lost to UCLA 24-45; week 2, beat Syracuse 21-18; week 3, beat Wagner 49-7; week 4, lost to Clemson 10-24; week 5, lost to UNLV 31-39; week 6, beat Virginia Tech 25-20; week 7, lost to Wake Forest 7-41; week 8, lost to SMU 20-59; week 9, lost to NC State 10-31.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will California make the College Football Playoff?
- California is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.0 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does California need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, California makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 3.7% of seasons.
- Who should California fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on California's playoff odds.
- What is California's toughest game left?
- At Virginia in week 11, with a 19.4% chance to win.
- How are California's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in California's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.