CFB Rooting Guide
Methodology

Root for the right team

The game that matters most is often one your team is not playing in.

2.5 millionsimulated seasons behind every number, each one rated, ranked the way the selection committee works and played through the 12-team bracket. Methodology

Pick your team or start with one of these.

The race, week 10

  1. 1Alabama97.82%
  2. 2Georgia97.36%
  3. 3Miami96.13%
  4. 4Notre Dame94.36%
  5. 5Utah90.73%
  6. 6Boise State86.02%
  7. 7Texas76.76%
  8. 8UCLA67.01%
  9. 9Indiana62.86%
  10. 10Wake Forest43.14%

On the bubble

  1. Tennessee43.02%
  2. Texas Tech41.41%
  3. Kentucky39.65%
  4. LSU36.46%
  5. Ole Miss32.69%
  6. Houston29.80%
  7. Ohio State29.42%
  8. BYU27.37%

All 138 teams CFP rankings

The games that matter most, week 11

  1. 1Ole MissatOklahoma0.28
  2. 2Wake ForestatSMU0.28
  3. 3TexasatLSU0.28
  4. 4USCatIndiana0.28
  5. 5Texas TechatOklahoma State0.24

Every week 11 game, ranked

The playoff if the season ended today

  1. 8UCLABig Ten leader9BYU1MiamiACC leader
  2. 5Alabama12Boise Statebest Group of Six4Indiana
  3. 6Kentucky11Notre Dametop 123UtahBig 12 leader
  4. 7Texas10Ole Miss2GeorgiaSEC leader

First teams out

CFP rankings

Conference title races

Questions

Which games should I root for this week?
Pick your team to see every week 10 game ranked by its effect on your team's playoff odds, from 2.5 million simulated seasons. The most important game is often one your team is not playing in.
Who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff?
Alabama at 97.8%, then Georgia at 97.4%, Miami at 96.1%.
How are these playoff odds calculated?
The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated with Kenneth Massey's model, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the 12-team bracket.