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Houston playoff odds
Houston makes the College Football Playoff in 29.8% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Houston playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Houston is 7-2 (4-2 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 29.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 18.0%), wins the Big 12 in 8.3%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.8% and wins the national title in 0.38%, with 9.1 projected wins.
That is the 16th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 20.
Who Houston fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Houston's playoff odds the most.
- Utah over Arizona, worth 4.73%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 3.42%
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 3.41%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 3.16%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.59%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 2.40%
What Houston needs
Houston has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 75.3%, at 9-3 in 2.5%. The game that decides the most is against Baylor in week 13: 46.6% with a win, 1.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 19.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Houston at 100.0% and losing it at 61.5%; missing it leaves 18.0%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Colorado | 78.1% | 37.9% | 1.0% |
| Week 12 | at West Virginia | 72.4% | 40.6% | 1.4% |
| Week 13 | vs Baylor | 63.0% | 46.6% | 1.1% |
Houston's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 38.2% | 75.3% |
| 9-3 | 40.4% | 2.5% |
| 8-4 | 18.0% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 3.3% | <0.1% |
Houston's results
week 1, beat Oregon State 33-20; week 2, beat Southern 77-6; week 3, lost to Texas Tech 26-28; week 4, beat Georgia Southern 42-28; week 5, beat UCF 27-17; week 6, beat Kansas State 35-16; week 7, beat Oklahoma State 35-32; week 8, lost to Utah 13-21; week 10, beat Cincinnati 31-24.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Houston make the College Football Playoff?
- Houston is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 29.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.1 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 8.3% and the national title in 0.38%.
- What does Houston need to make the playoff?
- Houston has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 75.3%, at 9-3 in 2.5%. The game that decides the most is against Baylor in week 13: 46.6% with a win, 1.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 19.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Houston at 100.0% and losing it at 61.5%; missing it leaves 18.0%.
- Who should Houston fans root for in week 11?
- Utah over Arizona, worth 4.73% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is Houston's toughest game left?
- Hosting Baylor in week 13, with a 63.0% chance to win.
- How are Houston's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Houston's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.