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Texas A&M playoff odds
Texas A&M makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Texas A&M playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Texas A&M is 4-5 (1-5 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.2 projected wins.
That is the 60th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Texas A&M fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Texas A&M's playoff odds.
What Texas A&M needs
Even at 7-5, Texas A&M makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is against Tennessee in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 34.4% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Tennessee | 44.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Oklahoma | 42.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Texas | 30.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Texas A&M's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 7.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 26.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 40.3% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 25.3% | <0.1% |
Texas A&M's results
week 1, beat Missouri State 50-0; week 2, beat Arizona State 48-20; week 3, lost to Kentucky 21-31; week 4, lost to LSU 6-35; week 5, beat Arkansas 34-7; week 6, lost to Missouri 6-27; week 7, beat The Citadel 41-0; week 8, lost to Alabama 20-31; week 10, lost to South Carolina 9-17.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Texas A&M make the College Football Playoff?
- Texas A&M is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.2 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Texas A&M need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Texas A&M makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is against Tennessee in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 34.4% of seasons.
- Who should Texas A&M fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Texas A&M's playoff odds.
- What is Texas A&M's toughest game left?
- Hosting Texas in week 13, with a 30.1% chance to win.
- How are Texas A&M's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Texas A&M's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.