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Alabama playoff odds
Alabama makes the College Football Playoff in 97.8% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Alabama playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Alabama is 7-2 (5-2 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 97.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 67.3%), wins the SEC in 27.4%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 63.8% and wins the national title in 15.13%, with 9.8 projected wins.
That is the 1st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 6.
Who Alabama fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Alabama's playoff odds the most.
- Georgia over Missouri, worth 1.07%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.65%
- LSU over Texas, worth 0.65%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.55%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.50%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.49%
What Alabama needs
Alabama can afford one loss. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 92.1%, at 8-4 in 11.5%. The game that decides the most is at Vanderbilt in week 11: 99.3% with a win, 80.0% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 57.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Alabama at 100.0% and losing it at 99.6%; missing it leaves 95.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Vanderbilt | 92.2% | 99.3% | 80.0% |
| Week 12 | vs Chattanooga | 100.0% | 97.8% | - |
| Week 13 | vs Auburn | 90.1% | 99.3% | 84.3% |
Alabama's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
| 9-3 | 15.6% | 92.1% |
| 8-4 | 1.1% | 11.5% |
Alabama's results
week 1, beat East Carolina 48-10; week 2, beat Kentucky 45-17; week 3, beat Florida State 50-36; week 4, beat South Carolina 49-18; week 5, beat Mississippi State 56-23; week 6, lost to Georgia 17-20; week 7, lost to Tennessee 10-26; week 8, beat Texas A&M 31-20; week 10, beat LSU 31-13.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?
- Alabama is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 97.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.8 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 27.4% and the national title in 15.13%.
- What does Alabama need to make the playoff?
- Alabama can afford one loss. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 92.1%, at 8-4 in 11.5%. The game that decides the most is at Vanderbilt in week 11: 99.3% with a win, 80.0% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 57.4% of seasons. Winning it puts Alabama at 100.0% and losing it at 99.6%; missing it leaves 95.1%.
- Who should Alabama fans root for in week 11?
- Georgia over Missouri, worth 1.07% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is Alabama's toughest game left?
- Hosting Auburn in week 13, with a 90.1% chance to win.
- How are Alabama's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Alabama's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.