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BYU playoff odds
BYU makes the College Football Playoff in 27.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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BYU playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
BYU is 7-2 (4-2 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 27.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 44.0%), wins the Big 12 in 8.3%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.7% and wins the national title in 0.45%, with 9.1 projected wins.
That is the 18th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 14.
Who BYU fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move BYU's playoff odds the most.
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 3.56%
- TCU over Kansas State, worth 3.17%
- Colorado over Houston, worth 3.16%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.98%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 2.72%
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 2.66%
What BYU needs
BYU has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 68.5%, at 9-3 in 2.6%. The game that decides the most is against Baylor in week 11: 41.1% with a win, 1.0% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 18.1% of seasons. Winning it puts BYU at 100.0% and losing it at 61.1%; missing it leaves 16.0%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Baylor | 65.8% | 41.1% | 1.0% |
| Week 12 | at Kansas | 69.1% | 39.0% | 1.5% |
| Week 13 | vs Cincinnati | 79.0% | 34.4% | 1.0% |
BYU's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 38.4% | 68.5% |
| 9-3 | 40.2% | 2.6% |
| 8-4 | 18.0% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 3.3% | <0.1% |
BYU's results
week 1, beat Utah Tech 63-7; week 2, beat Arizona 28-17; week 3, beat Colorado State 41-23; week 5, beat TCU 17-10; week 6, beat Iowa State 24-10; week 7, beat Notre Dame 28-24; week 8, lost to UCF 31-39; week 9, beat Arizona State 27-20; week 10, lost to Utah 20-28.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?
- BYU is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 27.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.1 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 8.3% and the national title in 0.45%.
- What does BYU need to make the playoff?
- BYU has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 68.5%, at 9-3 in 2.6%. The game that decides the most is against Baylor in week 11: 41.1% with a win, 1.0% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 18.1% of seasons. Winning it puts BYU at 100.0% and losing it at 61.1%; missing it leaves 16.0%.
- Who should BYU fans root for in week 11?
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 3.56% in playoff odds, then TCU over Kansas State.
- What is BYU's toughest game left?
- Hosting Baylor in week 11, with a 65.8% chance to win.
- How are BYU's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in BYU's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.