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Iowa State playoff odds
Iowa State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Iowa State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Iowa State is 4-5 (2-4 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.5 projected wins.
That is the 86th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Iowa State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Iowa State's playoff odds.
What Iowa State needs
Even at 7-5, Iowa State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 48.7% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Cincinnati | 49.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at UCF | 39.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Kansas State | 57.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Iowa State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 13.8% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 34.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 36.0% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 15.3% | <0.1% |
Iowa State's results
week 1, beat Southeast Missouri State 38-10; week 2, lost to Iowa 13-16; week 3, beat Bowling Green 55-7; week 4, lost to Utah 17-31; week 5, beat West Virginia 45-42; week 6, lost to BYU 10-24; week 8, lost to Arizona 3-39; week 9, beat Oklahoma State 51-49; week 10, lost to Baylor 31-42.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?
- Iowa State is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.5 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Iowa State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Iowa State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 48.7% of seasons.
- Who should Iowa State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Iowa State's playoff odds.
- What is Iowa State's toughest game left?
- At UCF in week 12, with a 39.8% chance to win.
- How are Iowa State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Iowa State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.