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Cincinnati playoff odds
Cincinnati makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Cincinnati playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Cincinnati is 5-4 (2-4 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.4 projected wins.
That is the 73rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Cincinnati fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Cincinnati's playoff odds.
What Cincinnati needs
Even at 8-4, Cincinnati makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 86.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Iowa State | 50.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Colorado | 71.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at BYU | 21.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Cincinnati's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 9.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 37.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 40.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 13.2% | <0.1% |
Cincinnati's results
week 1, beat Boston College 34-15; week 2, beat Western Carolina 62-10; week 3, beat Miami (OH) 35-31; week 4, beat Kansas State 31-26; week 5, lost to Arizona 7-34; week 7, lost to West Virginia 42-45; week 8, beat Texas Tech 37-24; week 9, lost to Utah 25-49; week 10, lost to Houston 24-31.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Cincinnati make the College Football Playoff?
- Cincinnati is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.4 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Cincinnati need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Cincinnati makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 86.8% of seasons.
- Who should Cincinnati fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Cincinnati's playoff odds.
- What is Cincinnati's toughest game left?
- At BYU in week 13, with a 21.0% chance to win.
- How are Cincinnati's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Cincinnati's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.