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Miami (OH) playoff odds
Miami (OH) makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Miami (OH) playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Miami (OH) is 5-4 (3-2 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in 2.7% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.6 projected wins.
That is the 95th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Miami (OH) fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Miami (OH)'s playoff odds.
What Miami (OH) needs
Even at 8-4, Miami (OH) makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 5.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Miami (OH) at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 89.8% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Ohio | 52.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Kent State | 75.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Western Michigan | 27.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Miami (OH)'s playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 13.0% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 40.1% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 36.6% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 10.2% | <0.1% |
Miami (OH)'s results
week 1, lost to Pittsburgh 14-59; week 2, beat Holy Cross 45-7; week 3, lost to Cincinnati 31-35; week 4, beat UConn 24-21; week 5, lost to Bowling Green 20-24; week 6, beat Massachusetts 20-19; week 7, beat Akron 34-14; week 8, beat Central Michigan 28-27; week 10, lost to Buffalo 31-34.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Miami (OH) make the College Football Playoff?
- Miami (OH) is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.6 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in 2.7% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Miami (OH) need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Miami (OH) makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 5.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Miami (OH) at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 89.8% of seasons.
- Who should Miami (OH) fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Miami (OH)'s playoff odds.
- What is Miami (OH)'s toughest game left?
- At Western Michigan in week 13, with a 27.7% chance to win.
- How are Miami (OH)'s playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Miami (OH)'s playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.