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Ball State playoff odds
Ball State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Ball State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Ball State is 3-6 (2-3 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.0 projected wins.
That is the 66th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Ball State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Ball State's playoff odds.
What Ball State needs
Even at 6-6, Ball State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 4.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Buffalo | 39.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Ohio | 18.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Central Michigan | 37.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Ball State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 4.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 21.1% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 41.7% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 33.2% | <0.1% |
Ball State's results
week 1, lost to Ohio State 3-56; week 2, beat Stony Brook 41-17; week 3, lost to Liberty 15-51; week 4, lost to Kent State 13-26; week 5, lost to Toledo 24-39; week 6, lost to Northwestern 14-45; week 7, beat Bowling Green 32-31; week 8, beat Sacramento State 34-17; week 10, lost to Massachusetts 30-31.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Ball State make the College Football Playoff?
- Ball State is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.0 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Ball State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Ball State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 4.0% of seasons.
- Who should Ball State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Ball State's playoff odds.
- What is Ball State's toughest game left?
- At Ohio in week 12, with a 18.4% chance to win.
- How are Ball State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Ball State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.